3 8 


1 8 7 7. 

Cotton 

PROSPECTS. 


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, 
















. 
































































t 












' 877 - 

COTTON 

PROSPECTS. 

An examination of the points of advan¬ 
tage peculiar to the Cotton-growing 
interest in the Southern States. 


PRESENTED BY 

y 

Southern Fertilizing Company, 



Clemmitt & Jones, Printers, Richmond, Va, / ' *-) 












4 


nied by a temporary recovery in values; but these have afforded but little benefit to the 
market, while by raising false hopes and expectations they have rather aggravated than 
ameliorated the feeble condition of the trade. The upshot has been a slow, anxious, and,, 
for the most part, unremunerative business; not so disastrous as in previous seasons, but 
still so unsatisfactory that balance sheets, if not exhibiting a loss of more or less importance, 
do not show any profit of moment; for prices have been considered so safe that even the 
gains derived in a falling market by selling for forward deliver)" have been much smaller 
than in previous seasons. 

Course of the Market, October i, 1875, to October i, 1S76. 

Our market opened quietly on the 1st October, 1875, with Middling Upland at 6i/d per 
lb.—the lowest price touched since before the American war. The current opinion was 
that if no immediate recovery took place there was no need to apprehend any very serious 
decline. The prevalence of this view of the situation led to rather extensive operations in 
Manchester during the first half of October, and to corresponding activity here, resulting in 
an advance of ^d. to ]/ z d. in American, and y^d. to yfd. in other descriptions upon the pre¬ 
vious lowest sales; confidence being further strengthened by the receipt of less glowing crop 
accounts than those previously at hand. Middling Uplands quoted 7J^d. on October 14th, 
the highest price of the season. Buyers, however, having supplied their wants, declined to 
follow the advance, and for the ensuing four weeks the demand fell off, and prices gave 
way fully yfd. per lb. This decline, and less liberal American receipts than had been 
counted upon, induced a better demand between the middle of November and the middle 
of December; but holders sold so freely that prices did not gain more than Ugd. per lb. for 
American, while long staples slightly receded. Then came larger receipts, accompanied 
by increased crop estimates; and the general opinion at the close of the old year was that 
if the receipts did not immediately show a very marked reduction, crop estimates would 
be increased, and current views about the course of the market would be materially 
changed. 

These anticipations were fully realized : the receipts kept up, crop estimates rose to 4J2 
millions, and people began to talk of 6 d for Middling Upland as amongst the certainties of 
the immediate future. Spinners, therefore, purchased sparingly, especially as they were 
receiving a large quantity of Cotton from week to week direct from the quay; business in 
Manchester was almost stagnant, owing to the serious decline in the Indian exchanges 
occasioned by the unexpected fall in the price of silver; and between December 16th and 
March 1st prices gave way about id. per lb. in American, 1 j£d. in Egyptian, and ]/ z d. to 
■fyd. in Brazils and Surats. At times the market was quite demoralized, and fears were en¬ 
tertained that so great a fall would be followed by serious embarrassments amongst im¬ 
porters and speculators; but as a matter of fact nothing alarming happened. Middling 
Upland was now easily purchaseable at 6d per lb. on the spot, and at 5^ landing. This 
fall to the ideal bottom of the market brought in buyers, and between the 1st and oth of 
March a large business was done at an advance of yfd. to f^d. per lb. There was then a 
slight pause followed by renewed activity, which continued until Middling Upland was 
quoted (March 22) 6 x 9 x d. on the spot, and 6Jfd. for distant delivery. Manchester par* 
tially responded to the advance, owing to more satisfactory advices from the Eastern mar¬ 
kets; but the rise in Yarns and Goods was considerably less than the advance in Cotton, 
and by the end of March both markets had become dull and inactive. 

From the end of March to the close of the first week in July the business doina- in both 
Cotton and Cotton products was of the most retail character, and the tendency of prices 


5 


downwards, except one week in June, in which the sales reached 73,000 bales, and prices 
advanced J^d. to T 3 5 d. Besides the interruption to trade caused by the depreciation in the 
value of silver, and the consequent unsettled state of the Eastern exchanges, the markets 
were adversely influenced by the growing seriousness of affairs in Turkey. With a dimin¬ 
ished desire to buy came an increased desire to sell, and the consequence was that prices 
fell from 6 x 9 ^d. for Middling Upland on the 22nd March to 6d. on the 20th May (5^d. 
landing) and though there was a reaction of x 3 ff d in June, the fall recommenced and did not 
stop until the opening days of July, which witnessed 5j^d. on the spot and 5 x 9 ^d. landing, 
the lowest prices of the season. The most desponding view was then taken of the future; 
short-time meetings were held throughout the manufacturing districts; and it was doubted 
whether the decline in Cotton would be arrested even at 5 yd. for Middling Upland. 

The extreme depression, however, only lasted for a few days, and as July advanced con¬ 
fidence began to regain strength. During the last ten days of the month, orders, to a con¬ 
siderable extent, were placed in Manchester, and as they were taken at very low prices, 
spinners at once became very extensive purchasers of the raw material. The activity con¬ 
tinued until the middle of August, resulting in an advance of y z d. per lb. upon the low 
sales made five weeks previously. In Manchester the advance in Shirtings on the previous 
depressed sales was 4j^d. to 7j£d. per piece, according to weight. After so large a busi¬ 
ness, and so important an advance, a pause was only natural. During the second half of 
August the demand was exceedingly small, and prices lost about half of the advance just 
quoted. There was a slight recovery in the first week of September, owing to stronger 
American advices; but with a reduced demand, a slow market in Manchester, and the 
threatening look of Turkish affairs, the improvement was more than lost during the subse¬ 
quent fortnight—Middling Upland sinking to 5j£d. The fall once more induced a large 
business in Manchester, and this led to an extensive demand here, the sales for the last 
week of the season reaching 87,000 bales, including 75,000 to spinners; but the demand 
was so freely met that prices did not gain more than i T ^d. t except low American, which 
advanced d. Middling Upland closed at 5Jfd.,— x 3 gd. higher than the lowest, i x %d. lower 
than the highest, and Jfd. lower than the opening quotation of the season. 

Imports and Stocks. 

The Imports and Stocks of the whole of Europe compare as follow in 1,000’s of bales: 


Import. American. 

E. Indian. 

Brazil. 

Egyptian. 

Smyrna. 

W. I., &c. 

Total. 

1875-76, 

3,206 

1,220 

402 

464 

107 

113 

5,512 

1874-75, 

2,653 

1,544 

562 

347 

94 

170 

5,370 


_ 

■ ■ - — 

— 

— 

— 

-— 

” 

Increase, 

553 



117 

13 


142 

Decrease, 


324 

160 


... 

57 


Stocks, Sept. 30. 

1876, 

570 

312 

162 

65 

21 

38 

1,168 

1875, 

496 

488 

107 

65 

27 

43 

1,226 

Increase, 

74 


55 

• •• 

• •• 

• •• 


Decrease, 


176 


... 

6 

6 

58 


Deliveries for Six Seasons. 

The following is a comparative statement of the deliveries during the past six seasons, in 
1,000’s of bales, with the weight in lbs.: 












6 


Great Britain. 


Average Total Weight. 



Amer. 

E. India. 

Brazil. 

Egypt. 

Sundries. 

Total. 

Weight. 

Lbs. 

1875-’6, 

1,948 

479 

238 

298 

54 

3,017 

421 

1,270,287,000 

1874-’5, 

1,606 

668 

461 

245 

97 

3,077 

389.6 

1,198,838,000 

1873-’4, 

1,701 

660 

413 

285 

90 

3,149 

394 

1,240,706,000 

1872-’3, 

1,654 

737 

509 

306 

129 

3,335 

384 

1,280,640,000 

1871-’2, 

1,412 

658 

668 

239 

155 

3,132 

360 

1,127,520,000 

1870-T, 

1,925 

558 

379 

241 

119 

3,222 

392 

1,263,024,000 





Continent. 











Average 

Total Weight. 


Amer. 

E. India. 

Brazil. 

Egypt. 

Sundries. 

Total. 

Weight. 

Lbs. 

1875-’6, 

1,184 

916 

109 

166 

178 

2,553 

402 

1,026,374,000 

1374-’5, 

981 

947 

154 

85 

174 

2,341 

382 

894,262,000 

1873-’4, 

1,021 

874 

187 

91 

196 

2,369 

377 

893,113,000 

1872-’3, 

890 

790 

231 

101 

181 

2,193 

366 

802,638,000 

1871-’2, 

671 

726 

298 

65 

221 

1,981 

350 

693,350,000 

1870-T, 

1,118 

753 

212 

96 

186 

2,365 

380 

898,700,000 





All Europe. 











Average 

Total Weight, 


Amer. 

E. India. 

Brazil. 

Egypt. 

Sundries. 

Total. 

Weight. 

Lbs. 

lS75-’6, 

3,132 

1,395 

347 

464 

232 

5,570 

412.3 

2,296,661,000 

1874-’5, 

2,587 

1.615 

615 

330 

271 

5,418 

386.3 

2,093,100,000 

1873-’4, 

2,722 

1,534 

600 

376 

286 

5,518 

386.7 

2,133,819,000 

1872-’3, 

2,544 

1,527 

740 

407 

310 

5,528 

376.8 

2,083,278,000 

1871-’2, 

2‘083 

1,384 

966 

304 

376 

5,113 

356.1 

1,820,870,000 

1870-T, 

3,043 

1,311 

591 

337 

305 

5,587 

386.9 

2,161,724,000 

The average w 

eekly deliveries in bales were as follows : 





Great Britain. 


1875-’6. 

1874-’5. 

1873-'4 

1872-’3. 

1871-’2. 

1870-T. 

American, . 

37,468 

30,885 

32,711 

31,808 

27,154 

37,019 

East Indian, . . 

. 9,220 

12,846 

12,692 

14,173 

12,654 

10,731 

Other kinds, 

11,337 

15,422 

15,154 

18,154 

20,423 

14,211 

Total, . 

. 58,025 

59,173 

60,557 

64,135 

60,231 

61,961 

Continent. 

American, 

. 22,773 

18,865 

19,635 

17,115 

12,904 

21,500 

East Indian, . . 

17,607 

18,212 

16,807 

15,192 

13,961 

14,481 

Other kinds, 

. 8,719 

7,942 

9,116 

9,866 

11,231 

9,500 

Total, . 

. 49,099 

45,019 

45,558 

42,173 

38,096 

45,481 

Grand total, 

. 107,124 

104,192 

106,115 

106,308 

98,327 

107,442 


The average weights for last year have been adjusted in accordance with the figures pub¬ 
lished by the Cotton Brokers’ Association in December. The average weight of American 
packages consumed this year we have taken at 441 lbs., against 439 lbs. last year; and of 
East Indian 380 lbs., against 378 lbs. for Great Britain, and 367 lbs. against 360 lbs. for 
the Continent. The average weight of Egyptian we take at 602 lbs., of Brazil 160 lbs.,, 
and of West Indian, &c., 205 lbs. for both years; of Smyrna 370 lbs. for both years for 
Great Britain, and 350 lbs. for the Continent. 




















7 

Consumption of Great Britain. 


Twelve months since we estimated that English spinners held (in addition to ordinary 
working stock) about 8,000,000 lbs., or 20,000 bales of surplus cotton at the mills. They 
held about the same surplus at the close of last month, acquired chiefly in the last week of 
the month, in which week the deliveries from Liverpool reached 75,000 bales, against an 
average consumption of 58,000 bales. The deliveries for the season may therefore betaken 
as representing the actual weight of Cotton spun, say 1,270,287,000 lbs., against our esti¬ 
mate of 1,265,000,000 lbs . put forth a year ago. Subjoined is a comparative statement of 
the weight of Cotton delivered, and the estimated weight consumed in each of the past 
four seasons: 

Actual Weight Estimated Weight Surplus Deficit 


Delivered. Consumed. Lbs. Lbs. 

1872- 73, .... 1,280,640.000 1,227,463,000 53,187,000 . 

1873- 74, .... 1,240,706,000 1,259,836,000 . 19,130,000 

1874- 75, .... 1,198,838,000 1,224,377,000 . 25,539,000 

1875- 76, .... 1,270,287,000 1,270,287,000 . . 


Leaving a net surplus of 8,518,000 lbs. at the mills. It is supposed that there were no 
surplus stocks on hand at the opening of i 872-’73. The number of spindles in the United 
Kingdom at the end of 1874 was 37,515,000, exclusive of doubling spindles. From 
1,250,000 to 1,500,000 have since been added, and a large number of old spindles have 
been replaced by new. 

Consumption of the Continent. 

The rate of increase in the consumption of the Continent, in i 873~’4 and i 874~’5, was 
about five per cent, per annum. A year since, the prevalent opinion was, that the increase 
in 1875-’6 would not exceed three per cent.; but owing partly to the extensive use of Ame¬ 
rican in place of East Indian Cotton, and partly to the larger production of the lower counts 
of Yarn, the increase has really reached about five per cent., say about 961,143,000 lbs. 
against 915,375,000 last year. It is supposed that Continental spinners held no surplus 
stocks at the close of i 872-’3. The movements since that date are shown in the following 


table: . 

Actual Weight Estimated Weight Surplus Deficit 

Delivered. Consumed. Lbs. Lbs. 

1873- 74, .... 893,113,000 872,000,000 21,113,000 . 

1874- 75, .... 894,262,000 915,375,000 - . 21,113,000 


1875-76, .... 1,026,374,000 961,143,000 65,231,000 . 

This surplus of 65,231,000 lbs. is equal to 158,000 bales of 412 lbs. each—the average 
weight of last year’s import into the whole of Europe. 

An estimate, based on the consumption per spindle in each country, brings out a result 
not materially different from the foregoing computation : 


Number of 
Spindles. 


Russia and Poland, . . 2,500,000 

Sweden and Norway, . . 305,000 

Germany, . . . 4,650,000 

Austria, . . . . 1,555,000 

Switzerland, . . . 1,850,000 

Holland. 230,000 

Belgium, .... 800,000 

France, .... 5,000,000 

Spain, .... 1,750,000 

Italy, .... 800,000 


Total, . . 19,440,000 


Lbs. per 


Bales of 

Average 

Spindle. 

Total lbs. 

400 lbs. 

per week, 

60 

150,000,000 

375,000 

7,212 

65 

19.825,000 

49,562 

953 

55 

255 750,000 

639,375 

12,296 

67 

104,185,000 

260,463 

5,009 

25 

46,250,000 

115,625 

2,223 

60 

13,800,000 

34,500 

663 

50 

40,000,000 

100,(00 

1,923 

42 

210,000,000 

525,000 

10,096 

46 

80,500,000 

201,250 

3,870 

56 

44,800,000 

112,000 

2,154 

49.6 

965,110,000 

2,412,775 

46,399 

















8 


These figures show an increase of about 5 y 2 per cent, upon last year’s estimated con* 
sumption. The weight of Cotton delivered was 1,026,374,000 lbs., or 61,264,000 lbs. more 
than the above estimated consumption. According to this computation, the surplus stock 
held by spinners at the end of September last was 148,000 bales of 412 lbs. 

The average consumption per spindle has been ascertained mostly by dividing the de¬ 
liveries for consumption for a series of years (as published by the various governments) by 
the number of spindles known to be in existence; but for Austria, Switzerland, Spain and 
Sweden the averages are the result of actual inquiries made in each country by our own 
correspondents. Next year we hope to have actual returns for the whole Continent. The 
number of spindles for some countries is larger, and for others smaller, than previously 
published, but they are more correct. 

An estimate of stocks, based upon answers to the question, “Are the stocks of Raw 
Cotton at the mills larger or smaller than twelve months ago; and, if so, to what extent?” 
gives the following result: 


Russia...... 20,000 to 25,000 

Poland. 6,000 “ 8,000 

Sweden, &c . 8,000 “ 13,000 

Germany,*. 40,000 “ 60,000 

Switzerland. 5,000 “ 10,000 

Holland and Belgium. 2,oOO “ 3,000 

France. 15,000 “ 20,000 

Italy. 5,000 “ 10,000 

Total. 101,000 “ 149,000 

In Spain there is no change of moment. 

In Austria there is a reduction, say. 5.000 “ 10,000 


Showing a net total of.. 96,000 “ 139,000 


or an average excess of 117,500 bales. The stocks in most cases consist chiefly of Ameri¬ 
can Cotton, in Switzerland mainly of Egyptian. The average weight will, therefore, 
exceed the 412 lbs. per bale upon which the estimates of 148,000 bales and 158,000, given 
above, are based; and, possibly, a fair estimate of the surplus on the Continent would be 
125,000 to 150,000 bales. In this connection we may remark, that the stocks of Goods in 
first hands are also rather larger than a year since; though mostly smaller in the hands of 
retailers. We may state that the foregoing estimate of stocks held by spinners takes no 
account of the Cotton held by French spinners at Havre, nor of that held by French, 
German, Swiss, Russian and Swedish spinners on shipment and delivery contracts. The 
quantity of Cotton so held is considerable, though (except in a few individual instances) 
not so large as at this time last year. 

Consumption of the United States. 

The quantity of Cotton taken by American spinners during the past season reached the 
unprecedentedly large total of 1,356,598 bales. This figure was quite 100,000 bales larger 
than had been calculated upon even up to the day on which the statement was published, 
and the result occasioned considerable surprise on both sides of the Atlantic. The general 
impression was that the quantity consumed had been only slightly larger than in the pre¬ 
vious season, and this impression seemed to be justified by the constant complaints of bad 


*Chiefly Alsace, Bavaria and Prussia. 


/ 




















9 


trade uttered by producers during the greater portion of the past twelve months; but as a 
matter of fact the deliveries showed an increase of nearly 150,000 bales upon those of 
1 874 — 5 * Allowing for differences in the stocks in the Northern interior markets, and de¬ 
ducting the Cotton sent to Canada and that burnt, the deliveries during the past six seasons 
compare as follows, according to the New York Financial Chronicle : 



1870-’l. 

1871-’2. 

1872-’3. 

1873-’4. 

1874-’5. 

1875-’6. 

North. 


977,540 

1,063,465 

1,177,417 

1,062,522 

1.211,598 

South. 


120,000 

137,662 

128,526 

145,079 

145,000 

Total. 

... 1,100,196 

1,097,540 

1,201,127 

1,305,943 

1,207,601 

1.356,598 


The prevalent notion twelve months ago was that the small deliveries and depressed trade 
of 1875 were owing chiefly to over-production during the previous season; but it would 
now appear that the difficulty experienced in selling goods in 1874-’5 and the greater 
part of 1875-6 was owing not so much to an actual reduction in consumption, as to the 
reduction of stocks in the hands of distributors, whereby producers were compelled to 
hold much larger stocks than usual. This accumulation of stock in the hands of producers 
"was palpable and visible, but the reduction in the hands of distributors was unknown and 
unseen; and the accumulation at the mills was interpreted as the result not of a shifting of 
stocks from one set of shoulders to another, but of over-production. By degrees, however, 
the true position of affairs was discovered, and the current belief in America now is that 
the deliveries of the past season represent the actual consumption for home requirements 
and export. On this question the following remarks from the New York Financial 
Chronicle , of September 30th, are exceedingly interesting: 

“ It greatly surprised us at first to find that the North had taken so much the past year. 
But, on examination, we are convinced that there is no reason for surprise. These in¬ 
creased takings do not necessarily indicate any increase in yards of cloth manufactured, 
but rather of heavier weights. When Cotton is 10 to 12 cents per pound, the heavier 
fabrics become relatively the cheaper, and less of the waste is worked back into the cloth; 
it should be remembered, also, that the export movement for China, Africa, and South 
America also runs upon heavy fabrics. Besides these causes, further investigation shows 
the truth of what we stated in our crop report, that low prices quickly enlarge the uses of 
this staple. For instance, in worsted and woolen mills there has been a very decided in¬ 
crease in Cotton consumed the past two years; and knit goods, which were formerly 30 to 
80 per cent, wool, are now almost wholly of Cotton. A correspondent, who is a dealer, writes 
that in this department the use of Cotton has increased 100 per cent. We thus have, in the 
main, the grounds for the large takings in the North of Cotton this year; and, with con¬ 
tinued low prices, there is no reason why the requirements should not be further increased 
the coming twelve months. These facts are very encouraging to the Cotton grower and also 
to the manufacturer. In a year of constant depression and of restricted consumption, the 
largest quantity of Cotton ever used in the country has been taken and used, and has all 
gone into consumption; for there are substantially no stocks of staple goods in first hands 
at the present time, while manufacturers hold less than the average stocks of the raw mate¬ 
rial.” 

The only conclusion to be drawn from this is that American spinners will require at least 
I >35°» 000 bales, possibly 1,400,000 bales, during the season upon which we have just en¬ 
tered. 

The number of spindles in the United States is about 9,500,000 to 9,600,000. 

State of the Cotton Industry on the Continent. 

Early in September we forwarded printed forms containing the following list of questions 
to correspondents at every Cotton port and Cotton manufacturing district on the Continent: 






10 


1. What has been the character of the trade during the past season? Has it been satis- 
tory or otherwise; and what causes have influenced the course of trade? 

2. What is the present state of the trade, and what are the prospects for the coming 
season ? 

3. What per cent, of increase has there been in the rate of consumption during the past 
season compared with the previous one ? 

4. Are the stocks of raw Cotton at the mills larger or smaller than they were twelve 
months ago ? If so, to what extent ? 

5. Are the stocks of Yarns and goods larger than they were twelve months ago ? 

6. What increase, if any, has there been in the number of spindles in your country ? 

Two other questions were added, one asking for official or other documents giving the 
number of spindles in existence in each country; and another asking for the views of our 
correspondents on any matter of interest to the trade not included in the above queries. 

The questions were sent to merchants, brokers, agents, spinners, manufacturers, and 
chambers of commerce. Special letters were also forwarded to the heads of the various 
government departments analogous to our Board of Trade, and to Her Majesty’s Secretaries 
of Embassy, &c., at the various Courts. 

A large number of replies have been received from each country, containing a vast 
amount of statistical and other information, of which we give below a brief analysis: 

RUSSIA AND POLAND. 

Past Season. —Moderately satisfactory during the first half, but unfavorable during the- 
second half. Some loss experienced in consequence of the fall in prices. Business some¬ 
what restricted, owing to the poor grain crop of last year, and to the monetary and financial 
difficulties and political apprehensions this year. Nevertheless, on the whole, the industry 
was not unprofitable, spinning paying better than weaving; and the stocks of goods have 
not greatly accumulated. Producers complain more of the inconvenience of the long 
credits (mostly 12 months) than of surplus stocks. 

The number of spindles in Russia is estimated at 2,300,000, and in Poland 200,000, or a 
total of 2,500,000. The number at work last season was about 2,400,000. The average 
consumption is about 60 lbs. per spindle per annum. Stocks of Cotton at the mills rather 
larger than last year—say about 25,000 bales; but the surplus is chiefly in St. Petersburg, 
the mills in the Moscow district having, one with another, little more Cotton than twelve 
months since. Stocks of goods rather larger, but not very excessive; the surplus, unlike 
that of Raw Cotton, exists chiefly at Moscow. 

Prospects. —The outlook is unfavorable at the moment, owing to the disturbed state of 
politics; but, if peace should be preserved, a large and profitable trade is confidently antic¬ 
ipated, as the demand for goods is certain to be stimulated by the unprecedentedly low 
prices. 

Sweden and Norway. 

Past Season. —Very satisfactory, except the loss upon Cotton imports occasioned by the 
fall in prices which took place alter the bulk of the purchases were made. Aside from the 
inroad made upon profits by this circumstance, business has been fairly remunerative. The 
good harvest, especially of oats, improved the demand for goods, particularly as the sales 
were below an average during the previous season. As usual when prices are low, the bet¬ 
ter qualities of goods have been in more request. 

The total number of spindles in Sweden is about 245,000, including 25,000 added since 
January last year. In Norway there are about 60,000 spindles. The consumption averages 


11 


65 lbs. pei spindle per annum. The stock of Cotton at the mills, &c., owing to an exces¬ 
sive import, is about 8,000 to 13,000 bales larger than last year. Some of our correspon¬ 
dents say that the stocks of yarns and goods are smaller than last year, others say that they 
are larger: on the whole there is perhaps not much change. 

Pi aspects. The season closes less favorably than it opened. Sales have been less easy 
of late than they were a short time back, and the outlook is not so good as the retrospect, 
owing to the less satisfactory character of the food crops, and the depression in the Timber 
and Iron trades: leading branches of the Svjpdish export business. Moreover, manufac¬ 
turers are complaining of the competition of cheap Manchester goods. 

Germany. 

Number of Spindles. The total number of spindles in Germany is variously estimated 
at from 5,000,000 to 5,200,000; but the result of our inquiries shows these figures to be ex¬ 
cessive. Alsace is put down for 2,100,000, but 1,650,000 is nearer correct. We find that 
there are about 875,000 in Bavaria, 700,000 in all Prussia, 500,000 in Saxony, 350,000 in 
Baden, 315,000 in Wurtemburg, and 260,000 in Hanover, Oldenburg, &c.—in all about 
3,000,000, which, added to 1,650,000 in Alsace, gives a total of 4,650,000. The average 
consumption for all Germany is about 55 lbs. per spindle per annum, 

Prussia. — Past Season. —Opened moderately satisfactory, but became worse, and ulti¬ 
mately bad, owing to diminished demand, general stagnation, over production, fall in 
prices—yarns and goods falling more than Cotton; English competition at “ ridiculous 
prices;” Alsatian competition in consequence of mills there having gone on to lower 
counts of yarns and coarser goods; and political uneasiness in reference to Turkish affairs. 

The number of spindles in all Prussia is estimated at 600,000 to 700,000. Improved 
machinery introduced into many mills. Stocks of Cotton larger than last year in some 
mills, smaller in others—net excess about 15,000 bales. Stocks of yarns and goods slightly 
larger. 

Prospects. —At present dull, but business in general is on a sounder basis; prices are 
low; stocks, though larger than last year, are not excessive; food is cheap; and if the 
Eastern question were settled a brisk trade would promptly follow. 

Saxony. — Past Season. —Unsatisfactory—worse from month to month—owing to general 
dullness in trade; excessive American crop, and constant fall in prices; losses on direct 
imports; cheap offers of goods from Manchester “ at prices never known before;” and 
political complications in Turkey. 

The number of spindles in Saxony in 1872 was 459,194; since increased to about 
500,000. Stocks of Cotton at the mills not larger than last year; possibly a little smaller. 
Stocks of goods smaller in some hands, but decidedly larger in others; on the whole greater 
than twelve months since, but not excessive. 

Prospects. —The unfavorable conditions named above still continue, though in some cases 
less active. The low prices favor a better demand, and Manchester competition is less 
keen than a short time back. A settlement of the Turkish question would be followed by 
revived trade and some advance in prices. 

Bavaria. — Past Season. —Not so satisfactory as the previous season, but on the whole 
not bad, except towards the close, as manufacturers were mostly under contract until re¬ 
cently. Of late, however, the sales have fallen behind production. 

The number of spindles in Bavaria is estimated at 875,000, including 30,000 added this 
season. Stocks of Cotton at the mills about 10,000 bales larger than last year. Stocks of 
goods larger at some mills, but smaller at others—slightly larger all round. 


12 


Prospects. —Not favorable, owing to supply of goods being in excess of demand; but a 
good trade anticipated provided peace be preserved. 

Baden. — Past Season. —Opened good, afterwards became unfavorable, owing to reduced 
demand, English competition, general dullness, and political uneasiness—result unsatisfac¬ 
tory to producers. 

The number of spindles in the Grand Duchy is estimated at 330,000 to 350,000. Stocks 
of Cotton at the mills rather smaller than last year. Stocks of goods rather larger. Last 
year manufacturers had none; this year theyhave about one month’s production. 

Prospects. —Not favorable, owing to the low price which producers are compelled to ac¬ 
cept in consequence of the competition of Manchester; but with settled politics it is thought 
that Manchester will find an outlet for her products elsewhere, and that the low prices will 
stimulate demand. There is some uneasiness amongst manufacturers owing to the talk of 
the import duties on Cotton bqing reduced. 

Wurtemburg. — Past Season. —First half pretty satisfactory; second half unfavorable, 
owing to sluggish demand, falling prices, English competition, and unsettled politics. 

The number of spindles in Wurtemburg is estimated at 315,000. Stocks of Cotton at the 
mills about the same as last year: larger of American, but smaller of East Indian. Stocks 
of goods insignificant. 

Prospects. —No improvement at present visible; but a good trade certain in the event of 
the Eastern question being pacifically settled. 

Alsace. — Past Season. —Satisfactory during the first quarter, but since very unfavora¬ 
ble, owing to miserable trade and finance in Germany, English competition, and political 
disquietude in the East. General results not very bad, but the season closes flat, owing to 
the accumulation of stocks. No increase in spindles, but more Cotton used owing to in¬ 
creased production of coarser yarns, and the increased use of American instead of East 
Indian. 

The number of spindles in Alsace is variously estimated at from 1,500,000 to 1,750,000. 
An average of 1,650,000 agrees most nearly to the official returns. Stocks of Cotton at the 
mills one to three months’ consumption (in a few instances still more); the average excess 
is at least 25,000 bales. Stocks of goods decidedly larger, especially of printers. One mill 
of 30,060 spindles built during the season. 

Prospects. —Little chance of improvement until the Eastern question is settled and some 
amendment takes place in trade and finance in Germany. 

Austria. 

Past Season. —Unsatisfactory, owing to the crippled state of trade, insecurity of credit, 
and general want of confidence more or less prevalent since the crisis of 1873; 1° the pre¬ 
vious over-production and the losses incurred by the constant fall in prices; to the compe¬ 
tition of English products which have been sold at “ ruinously low prices;” to the dimin¬ 
ished demand from Hungary and Galicia, caused by the deficient grain crops; and to the 
uneasiness produced by the political disturbances in the East. 

The total number of spindles in Austria is returned as 1,555,000, including about 740,000 
in Bohemia, and 500,000 in the Vienna district. The consumption of Cotton was rather 
less in the Vienna district than last season, but about the same in the remainder of the Em¬ 
pire. The stock of raw Cotton at the mills is about 5,000 to 10,000 bales less than at this 
time last year; but the stocks of goods are somewhat larger. 

Prospects. —There is some difference of opinion in the reports under this head; but on 
the whole a hopeful view is taken of the future. Rather more business has been doing 


13 


during the past month or so, and though the stocks of goods are larger at some mills than 
they were a year since, they are, on the whole, less than they were a few weeks back ; 
while the stocks in the hands of retailers are much smaller than usual. Should the peace 
of Europe be preserved, it is expected that the low prices current will lead to a good trade 
during the coming season. 

About 14,000 spindles idle last season and 15,000 new spindles will come into operation 
in IS76’—7, making a total of about 1,580,000 spindles. The average rate of consumption 
is about 67 lbs. per spindle per annum. 

Switzerland. 

Past Season .—Very unsatisfactory, owing to the sluggish demand, the accumulation of 
stocks, the fall in prices, the ruinous competion of English yarns and goods in Switzerland 
and in countries to which Swiss goods are exported; the stagnation in trade, and conse¬ 
quent reduced expenditure everywhere; and the fear of a general war arising out of the 
Eastern question. The spinners of fine yarns—those using Egyptian Cotton—have been 
especially unfortunate. 

The number of spindles in Switzerland is variously estimated at from 1,800,000 to 
2,200,000; but a recent government count, made in view of the approaching negotiations 
for a new Treaty of Commerce* gives the exact number as 1,854,091, and this figure is con¬ 
sidered to be more correct than the previous estimate. The average consumption is about 
25 lbs. per spindle per annum. Stock of Cotton rather larger of American, much larger of 
Egyptian, but much smaller of East Indian; altogether perhaps 5,000 to 10,000 bales larger 
than last year. Stocks of yarns and goods, which were almost nil twelve months since, are 
now very large, but the excess consists chiefly of fine yarns and goods made from Egyptian 
Cotton. Stocks of medium and coarse products not very heavy. 

Prospects .—With large stocks, a slow demand, fears of increased protective duties in 
Italy and France, Manchester competition at ruinously low prices, and disturbed politics, 
the out-look is very unpromising; but a settlement of the Turkish Question, and a diver¬ 
sion of the Manchester imports, would lead to a better state of things, especially as prices 
are very low, and the stocks in the hand of retailers in the principal markets small. 

Holland. 

» 

Past Season .—First half pretty satisfactory; second half barely remunerative. Divi¬ 
dends declared by two mills 73^ per cent, and 6 per cent, respectively; these are said to be 
fairly representative results. Trade with the Dutch East Indies slow ; many manufacturers, 
owing to production being in excess of demand, have been compelled to consign goods on 
their own account, always an unsatisfactory way of doing business. The fall in prices has 
occasioned considerable loss to holders and importers of the raw material. 

The bulk of the imports of Cotton into Amsterdam and Rotterdam pass on to Germany, 
Switzerland, &c. The number qf spindles in Holland is estimated at 230,000, including 
about 10,000 added this year. The average rate of consumption is about 60 lbs. per spin¬ 
dle per annum. The stocks of Cotton are rather larger than last year at some mills, but 
smaller at others. The stocks of Goods are decidedly larger at the mills, but smaller in 
the hands of distributors. 

Prospects .—So far as the home trade is concerned the outlook is favorable, as prices are 
low and stocks in hands of retailers small but the export branch is exceedingly dull, and at the 
moment there are no signs of improvement. It is thought, however, that the low prices 
will before long bring about a more desirable state of things. 


14 


Belgium. 

Past Season. —On the whole favourable, though less satisfactory of late owing to sales 
being less easily made in consequence of the competition of English Goods offered at low 
prices, which compels producers to accept less remunerative rates than those to which they 
have been accustomed. 

The number of spindles in Belgium is estimated at 800,000. The average rate of con¬ 
sumption is about 50 lbs. per spindle per annum. The stocks of Cotton at the mills are 
rather larger than twelve months since. The stocks of Goods are also somewhat larger. A 
large portion of the imports of Raw Cotton passes into Germany, &c. 

Prospects at the moment are not brilliant, owing to the depression which exists in most 
departments of industry, and to the threatening appearance of politics; but with a settle¬ 
ment of the Eastern Question, and the diversion of Manchester Goods which it is ex¬ 
pected will follow that event, a very good trade is calculated upon, especially if prices 
should not materially advance. 

France. 

Past Season. —Opened favourably, but became less satisfactory as the year advanced, and 
closed sluggishly. First half of the season fairly remunerative to producers; second half 
unsatisfactory, owing to diminished demand and the competition of cheap Manchester 
fabrics, and to the losses on stocks of Cotton and Goods occasioned by constantly de¬ 
clining prices. 

Total number of spindles in France in 1874, 4,941,000; since increased to about 5,000- 
000. Estimated number at work during the past season, 4,750,000. Average consump¬ 
tion, 42 lbs. per spindle per annum. Stock of Cotton at the mills 15,000 to 20,000 bales 
more than last year. Stocks of Goods rather larger than last year; but they were then 
very small. 

Prospects. —Present appearances much less favourable than twelve months since, especi¬ 
ally for weavers. Orders on the books rapidly running out; new ones coming ip. very 
slowly; nevertheless, current rates for Cotton and Goods show a moderate margin of 
profit. A really satisfactory trade considered impossible until English competition is 
diminished. 

Spain. 

Past Season. —More favourable than the previous one, owing to the cessation of the civil 
war, which has enabled manufacturers to get rid of their stocks, while the low prices have 
stimulated the demand generally, and helped producers to make fair profits. 

The number of spindles in Spain is variously estimated at from 1,500,000 to 2,000,000. 
The balance of evidence is in favour of 1,750,000, including 1,550,000 in the province of 
Catalonia, which gets its supplies of Cotton from Barcelona. The average consumption is 
about 46 lbs. per spindle per annum. The stocks of Cotton at the mills do not ma¬ 
terially vary from those of last year. The stocks of Yarns and Goods are smaller 
than last year. 

Prospects. —A cheerful view is taken of the future, and with good food crops,, an in¬ 
creased consumption of Cotton goods, at profitable prices to producers, is confidently ex¬ 
pected, especially if no serious advance takes place in the value of the raw material. 

Italy. 

Past Season. —Pretty favourable at the opening, but less satisfactory at the close, and on 
the whole not so good as the previous season, owing to the poor grain and bad silk crops. 


15 


Altogether spinners have done better than manufacturers; the sale of Piece Goods having 
been sluggish of late, owing to the reduced general demand and the competition of foreign, 
chiefly English fabrics, which have been offered at very low prices. 

The total number of spindles in Italy is about 800,000. A mill with 30,000 spindles is 
in course of construction, and several others are about to be commenced. The consump¬ 
tion averages 56 lbs. per spindle. Stocks at the mills twelve months ago were greatly re¬ 
duced; they are now, with a few exceptions, very large, probably 5,000 to 10,000 bales 
more than last year. The stocks of Yarns are little, if any, larger than last year, The 
stocks of Goods are everywhere considerably larger. 

Prospects .—Less favourable than a year since, owing to accumulated stocks, slow de¬ 
mand, and foreign competition. Complaints are stronger from old mills than new. Many 
old mills are gradually adopting improved machinery. The hope is expressed in some 
quarters that the industry will be helped by increased duties on the renewal of the va¬ 
rious Commercial Treaties. 


Requirements for i 876—‘77. 

In i 874-’5 the consumption of Great Britain was about 1,224,500,000 lbs., but there was 
a loss of about 19,500,000 lbs., owing to the stoppage of machinery at Oldham, &c., but 
for which the weight of Cotton spun would have reached 1,244,000,000 lbs. The consump¬ 
tion in i 875-’6 was 1,270,000,000 lbs., an increase of 2.1 per cent., on the full rate of 
i 874-’5. A similar increase in 1876—’7 would bring the total up to 1,297,000,000 lbs. 
As the stocks at the mills are insignifican , the whole of this Cotton will be required. 

The consumption of the Continent during the past three seasons has shown an annual 
average increase of about 5 per cent. The weight spun in i 875~’6 was from 961,000,000 
>to 965,000,000 lbs. The weight delivered was 1,026,000,000 lbs., or 61,000,000 lbs. to 
65,000,000 lbs. more than the consumption. The average of the extreme estimates of con¬ 
sumption was 963,000,000 lbs. An increase of 5 per cent, would give 1,011,000,000 lbs. 
as the probable consumption in 1876-’7, which, less 63,000,000 lbs. surplus stocks now on 
hand, would give - 948,000,000 lbs. as the requirements for the new season, supposing the 
stocks at the mills to be reduced to the level of twelve months ago. If we say that the 
stocks at the mills are only 61,000,000 lbs., the requirements in i 876-’7 will be 1,013,- 
000,000 lbs., minus 61,000,000, or 952,000,000 lbs. If the consumption of the past season 
did not exceed 961,000,000, and the stocks left on hand reached 65,000,000, the re¬ 
quirements for the new season will be 1,009,000,000 lbs., minus 65,000,000, lbs., or 
944,000,000 lbs. 

According to the foregoing calculations, therefore, the requirements for Europe for 
1876-77 are— 

For Great Britain,.1,297,000,000 lbs. 

For the Continent (minimum).1,009,000,000 lbs. 

Less surplus Stock... 65,000,000 lbs.—944,000,000 lbs. 

Total for Europe (5,602,500 bales of 400 lbs. each).2,241,000,000 lbs. 

Prospects of Supply. 

It is universally admitted that the present American crop is smaller than the past one ; 
but there is a wide difference of opinion as to the extent of the deficit. The serious error 








16 


made in the estimated acreage led every one astray, and there is, therefore, no confidence in 
the figures published this year. Whatever may have have been the extent of the area sown 
last year, however, all authorities are agreed that less was put under cultivation this year, 
the estimated decrease varying from I to 3 per cent. It is unanimously agreed, also, that 
the average condition of the crop is worse, and consequently that the average production 
per acre will be less this season than last. Taking reduced acreage and diminished pro¬ 
ductiveness into account, the estimates of the total yield vary from 4,000,000 and 4,5000,- 
000 bales, but the majority range between 4,150,000 and 4,350,000; and altogether 
4,250,000 has more adherents than any other single estimate. To be on the full side we 
shall take the yield at 4,350,000 bales. Out of this American consumers will require 
1,400,000 (some authorities say 1,450,000); this will leave 2,950,000 bales for export to 
Europe, against 3,253,000 bales last season. 

From India we shall probably get more than last season, though not very much more, 
as we commence with 50,006 bales less afloat than a year since. A full estimate would be 
1,350,000 bales, against 1,220,000 last season; only an important advance in prices will 
bring more. The last Egyptian crop was a bumper, but a diminished yield is expected 
this season, owing to unfavorable conditions; the probable deficiency is variously estimated 
at from 40,000 to 60,000 bales. A reduction of 50,000 bales from last year’s import into 
Europe would leave 414,000, so that 420,000 bales would be a liberal estimate of the arri¬ 
vals for 1876—’77. The Brazilian supply is gradually dwindling away, owing to the con¬ 
stant fall in prices; in 1872 the import exceeded 1,000,000; last season it was only a little 
over 400,000 bales ! It is not unlikely that there is a reserve stock which an advance in 
prices would bring out, and as we contemplate some improvement upon present rates, we 
shall estimate the Brazilian import for 1876—^77 at 500,000 bales. From all other sources 
we shall probably get 200,000 bales (against 220,000 last season), say 90,000 from sundry 
Mediterranean ports, and 110,000 from the West Indies, Peru, &c, 

A recapitulation of the foregoing gives the following as the probable import in bales and 
pounds in 1876-’77 :— 

Bales. Weight. Pounds. 

American. 2,950,000 440 1,298,000,000 

East Indian. 1,350,000 370 499,500,000 

Egyptian. 420,000 600 252,000,000 

Brazilian. 500,000 160 80,000,000 

Sundry Mediterranean. 90,000 350 31,500,000 

West Indies, Peru, &c . 110.000 200 22,000,000 

Total. 5,420,000 402.7 2,183.000,000 

SUPPLY, DEMAND AND PRICES. 

We have shown above that the consumption of Europe in 1876—’77 will probably reach: 


Pounds. 

For Great Britain... 1,297,000,000 

And for the Continent. 1,009,000,000 


Or a total of. 2,306,000,000 

To meet which we have a supply of. 2,183,000,000 

Shewing a deficit of.. 123,000,000 

Deduct the surplus held by Continental Spinners. 65,000,000 


Leaves a net deficit of... 58,000,000 


or about 145,000 bales of 400 lbs. each. This result comes out upon the basis of an American 


































17 


crop of 4 , 350,000 bales, and liberal estimates of supply from other quarters. If the Amer¬ 
ican crop should reach 4 . 500,000 bales, or 150,000 more than we calculated upon, there will 
be no more Cotton than Europe requires to leave the stocks in the ports twelve months 
hence where they are now, and no surplus in the hands of spinners. But suppose the 
American crop, instead of reaching 4 . 500 , 000 , or even 4 , 350 , 000 , should only reach 
4 , 150 , 000 , to say nothing of still smaller figures contemplated by many Southern firms? 
With dull trade and unsettled politics, our estimated supply, as given above, would proba¬ 
bly meet the requirements of the world without necessitating any serious advance in prices; 
but what would be the effect of a general revival of trade and a settlement of the Eastern 
question ? 

We have indicated the various influences likely to affect the course of prices, and we 
shall leave our readers to draw their own conclusions from the facts and estimates laid be¬ 
fore them. An uninterrupted succession of commercial and financial disasters since 1872 — 
in this country, in America, and on the Continent—has so thoroughly demoralized the 
public mind, and so completely soured the disposition of the commercial community, 
that the mere suggestion that we are on the eve of a better state of things is almost univer¬ 
sally pooh-poohed; nevertheless, we are strongly disposed to take a hopeful view of the 
future, and as prices are very low, and the prospective supply less than the probable de¬ 
mand,^'we look few an advance in prices during the course of the season. 

Messrs. Ellison & Co. have just issued a further report, coming down to 
the 1 st of January, or three months later than the date of the foregoing. 
From it we make the following extracts: 

State of Trade on the Continent. 

Since the issue of our October Annual Report, in which we reviewed in detail the condi¬ 
tion of the Cotton industry in each country on the continent, trade has, with a few excep¬ 
tions, undergone some improvement. Business in Russia has continued very unsatisfac¬ 
tory, owing to the financial crisis and the fear of war; and, as a rule, the mills have not 
been working more than three or four days a week. The reports from Switzerland are also 
less favorable than could be desired ; and the trade of Holland is still dull, though better 
than a few months ago. Business in Germany is not so good as could be wished, owing 
chiefly to the slowness with whie|i Yarns and Goods have responded to the recent rise in 
the raw material, but the tendency is towards amelioration. The reports from France , 
Austria , Spain , Italy , Belgium and Sweden , state that trade is decidedly better. With refer¬ 
ence to France , it is worthy of note that the import and deliveries at Havre have been the 
largest on record at that port—the total deliveries for the year being 742,000 bales, inclu¬ 
ding 157,000 bales exported, of which 25,000 bales came to Liverpool. These 25,000 
bales consisted chiefly of the lower grades of American, which for several months past 
have been very scarce here. 

Probable Course of Prices. 

If we were certain that the supply for Europe would [considering the bearing of advices 
up to the present] fall nearly 600,000 bales behind the requirements of consumers, we 
should look for a very sharp advance in prices; but an important rise would tend to bring 
about a very material change in the figures. Supply would be stimulated, and consumption 
retarded, and it might be that the two sets of figures would be brought much closer toge- 
2 


18 


ther than is shown, by a difference of 600,000 bales. But in order to diminish this ap¬ 
parent deficit, some rise in prices must take place: the only question is the extent of the 
advance. 

In our Autumn Annual we stated that we anticipated some improvement in prices as the 
season advanced. Since then a rise of id. per lb. has taken place; and as there is no fibre 
which can compete with Cotton at 7d. per lb., for clothing and sundry other purposes, con¬ 
sumption will continue to increase, and if the supply does not increase in the same ratio, 
but on the contrary falls short of the world’s wants, prices must advance until consumption 
is checked. We offer no opinion as to the extent of the advance which will be necessary 
to restore the equilibrium between supply and demand. That may depend upon circum¬ 
stances outside of the Cotton Market, such as the fall in silver, which depressed prices last 
year, or political complications in the East, which may have the same effect this year. All 
that we can say is, that even with an American crop rather larger than our estimate, Mid¬ 
dling Upland is not likely to rule much below 7d., while with settled politics, and revived 
trade in Russia, and other portions of the Continent, at present depressed, a figure much 
above 7d. may be witnessed. 

The times have generally been very hard for the past three years, and all 
interests subjected to a most painful strain. How has Cotton fared under 
this pressure ? Consumption in the United States has steadily increased. 
In 1870-71, when times were comparatively flush, the consumption reached 
1,100,196 bales; in 1873-4 (the year of the panic), it was 1,305,943 bales ; 
in 1874-’5, 1,207,601 bales; and in 1875-’6, (corrected figures) 1,356,598 
bales. This is the first element of comfort to our Cotton growers. The 
consumption in Great Britain in 1874-5, was, of American, 1,606,000 bales, 
all other kinds, 1,471,000 bales; in 1875-6, 1,948,320 bales of American; 
of all other kinds, 1,068,990 bales. While her total consumption in 1875-’6 
was 59,690 bales less than in 1874-5, her increase in consumption of Ameri¬ 
can, in 1875-6, was 342,320 bales over 1874-5. This is the second ele¬ 
ment of comfort to our Cotton growers. On the Continent, the consumption 
in 1874-5 was, of American, 981,000 bales; all other kinds, 1,360,000 
bales; in 1875-6, of American, 1,184,230 bales; all other kinds, 1,368,940 
bales. While her total consumption, in 1875—’6, was 212,170 bales over 
that of 1874-5, 203,230 bales of this increase were American; and this is 
the third element of comfort to our Cotton growers. Here we may present 
an extract from the letter of our friend on the Continent, heretofore referred 
to : “ If, as seems likely, your crop will turn out 10 per cent., or more, be¬ 
low last season’s, the average price of Middling, during the present season, 
will certainly range above 6 pence in Liverpool. Your question as to the 
future is pretty nearly the same which you addressed to me some time ago, 
‘Will Cotton be King again ?’ It is answered in part by Ellison’s figures, 
which show that, with low prices, the import o^ India and Brazil Cotton into 
Europe, has declined very materially. If you can produce Cotton enough, ‘all 
other sorts’ will not exactly disappear, but the consumption will gradually 


19 


dwindle down to what it was before your war. It is all A question of 
price. You may take it as an axiom that the working value of good clean 
Surats is 75 per cent, of Middling American, say as 4 ? is to 6 pence. When 
Surats are cheaper, in proportion they will be preferred for certain low num¬ 
bers. 

“The import into Europe of ‘all other sorts;’ that is, of all Cotton except 

that from North America, shows the following, at certain points, since your 
war: 


Import “all other sorts,”—year 1865—’6 
“ (largest) “ 1871-2 

“ “ “ 1874—’5 

“ “ “ 1875-6 


Bales. 

3 , 166,000 

3 , 680,000 

2 , 711,000 

2 , 306,000 


Average price of Fair 
Dhollerah, in Liver¬ 
pool, during season. 

pence 

7 * “ 

5tV 

4tV* “ 


It is therefore most likely that the supply of ‘other sorts’ will continue to 
decrease if prices, on an average, shall continue to rule near 4 to% pence, for 
Surats, and 6rVcr pence for Middling Orleans. As to prices, speaking gene¬ 
rally, it is of no use to look back to former times, when Middling Orleans 
was often sold at 4 pence, and sometimes under. At those times the sup¬ 
ply, that is, the stock remaining in ports of Europe, at end of season, ( 30 th 
September,) amounted to 55 per cent of consumption of season in 1843 ; 61 
per cent, in 1844 , and 50 per cent, in 1845 , whereas the proportion, at the 
end of the last four seasons, say 30 th September, 1873 , 1874 , 1875 and 1876 , 
was only between 21 and 24 per cent.* 

“The average price of Middling Orleans in Liverpool was, during the 
eleven seasons from 1849 to 1860 , 6 T Vtr pence ; the five seasons, from 1855 to 
1860 , 6io 2 iy pence, (lowest, 5 f pence, highest, 9 t 5 6 pence.) From which I in¬ 
fer that, during the next few years, Middling Orleans cannot fall, however 
large may be your crops, below 6 pence, except under peculiar political or 
financial difficulties, for, so to say, a day or two.” 

We find, looking at the consumption of Great Britian last year, that in 


*We submit the following memorandum, from the New York Tribune : 

“ In some general remarks at the close of tables giving the details of the inter-State 
movement, The Financial Chronicle calls attention to the controlling feature of the year, 
namely, the accumulation of stocks in the manufacturers’ hands. This phenomenon in 
England is attributed by a writer in a Liverpool paper to the increased facilities of com-, 
munication between nations. Formerly the India firms were accustomed to hold large 
stocks for distribution, because if they ran out they could not obtain a fresh supply speedily. 
By means of the Suez canal all is changed. The firms can get along with small stocks, 
as goods can now be ordered and arrive in from six weeks to two months. The accumu¬ 
lation of goods therefore now takes place in manufacturers’ hands instead of the India 
merchants. The writer claims that this has given the appearance of over-production,, 
when in fact there is no over-production. Without wholly accepting ,the conclusion, the 
report points to the fact that it has already been proved that the alleged over-production in 
this country has not really existed. Prices have been unsatisfactory, but the mills have 
distributed nearly the usual amounts of goods. The accumulation of a surplus stock at the 
mills, formerly held everywhere over the country, gave rise to the allegation of over-pro¬ 
duction. 





20 


spite of tlie stoppage of machinery at Oldham, and other points, the con¬ 
sumption was 2 per cent, in excess of that for the year 1875. In fact, Cot¬ 
ton is so much cheaper than any other fibre whatever, suited for the cloth¬ 
ing of man, that the increase of consumption is limited only by the increase 
of population. Whether wars, or financial troubles, or other drawbacks, 
supervene, the consumption goes steadily on. 

In the general result of our crop, considered in respect of pounds, “ Sea 
Island” makes a very insignificant figure. The largest crop grown since 
1826 was that of 1859-60, when Florida produced 14,955 bags, Georgia, 
18,659, and South Carolina, 18,801,—altogether 52,413 bags. Since the war 
the condition of things has been so wretched on the Sea Islands that the 
i whole crop has dwindled down (in 1875-6) to only 14,996 bags; or Florida, 
8,950 bags, Georgia, 1,213, and South Carolina, 4,833. This Cotton, excel¬ 
ling all others in beauty, might, it would seem, under proper auspices, reach 
a figure higher than that of 1859-60 ; but how the demoralization that has 
prevailed, for so many years, in its habitat, is to be cured, is a problem alto¬ 
gether beyond our ability to solve. These islands form a region where 
the reign of the accursed carpet-bagger has been well-nigh supreme. Be¬ 
sides the “Sea Island,” there are four other varieties of long staple regu¬ 
larly set in the trade, namely, Egyptian, Brazilian, Peruvian and West In¬ 
dian. But when “Sea Island” brought 23 pence, the others ranged (observing 
the above order) at 1H pence, 111, 111 and 11 respectively. New Orleans 
Middling brought, at the same time, 11 pence, Mobile Middling 101, and 
Middling Uplands, 101. In other words, as between the long staple varie¬ 
ties (excepting “ Sea Island”) and the best short staple, the difierence is 
hardly more than appreciable. In 1874-5, the whole of Europe took for 
consumption, 1,615,000 bales of East Indian, and 1,216,000, of all others, 
excluding American; and in 1875-6, 1,395,010 bales of East Indian, and 
1,042,920, of all others, excluding American. Looking generally at the 
tendency of the trade since America came in again to claim a place and 
we find that practically it is within the reach of her ability to supplant 
all of the rest. 

Has any people, since the world began, possessed such an advantage as 
we do in this behalf? The efforts of the Cotton Supply Association, 
of Manchester, England, to find countries that could be substituted for our 
Cotton States, in the production of this staple, were no child’s play. The 
world has seldom witnessed greater vigor, and thoroughly well-directed at 
that, than this Association exhibited. The Cotton Supply Reporter is the re¬ 
cord of these endeavors, and no Englishman can look through its pages 
without increased admiration for his country. But these labors had no per¬ 
manent result; they could not have with American energy earnestly at 
work,—and we see nothing, now that the question of negro slavery has 


21 


been forever disposed of, that can fatally interfere ’with the free play of 
this energy in the future. We have an enormous range; even with the 
present consumption (almost 7,000,000 of bales), we have yet|to make over 
2,000,000 of bales in excess of our greatest crop (1859-60, 4,861,292'bales), 
to supply the world’s demand for this staple. The crop of 1869-70 was 
the first crop since the war that reached 3,000,000 of bales.!-The Cotton 
Silpply Reporter , commenting on it in 1870, said : “ The prediction of Mr. 
Reverdy Jqhnson that ‘ when free labor should be properly developed and 
organized, Manchester would rejoice, not only in four or [five, but in a 
few years, in six or seven millions of bales from America,’ seems no 
longer to be beyond the range of possibility. Whilst we behold with 
wonder the energy displayed, and rejoice in its results, the 'question as to 
how far other Cotton growing countries, and especially India, may be 
able to cope with this formidable rivalry is to us of the deepest interest. 
‘ America,’ we are told, ‘ is the home of the Cotton plant, and the Southern 
States the only country where Cotton can be produced successfully 
and regularly without resorting to artificial means of irrigation.’ Without 
admitting this to be absolutely true, it cannot be denied T that [special advan¬ 
tages belong to America, as a Cotton producing country, and that the planters 
not only greatly surpass the ryots of India, in energy and enterprise, but 
have also a decided superiority on account of their extensive knowledge and 
experience as Cotton growers. They still retain undiminished all the natu¬ 
ral advantages, which they have so long enjoyed, for the cultivation of their 
great staple.” 

This confession finds confirmation in India itself. The Mofussilite , one of 
the liveliest newspapers published in India, after looking at what has been 
accomplished in our Cotton States, since the war, exclaims: “ This, be it 
borne in mind, is the result of American enterprise within the last few 
years, for tyardly over half a dozen years ago, the Southern States lay bleed¬ 
ing and exhausted, at which time many thought it would take at least a 
generation to enable America to regain her former position.! , At that very 
time, India had exported £30,000,000 worth of Cotton in one year, while sad 
to relate it only equals about half that amount at present; so, does not com¬ 
mon sense tell us that America threatens, at no very remote date, to absorb 
the whole of the Cotton trade, and India will be shut out from one of the 
most important branches of commerce, while during this very period the fi¬ 
nancial state of India is becoming worse and worse. India can only hold 
her own in the civilized world by increasing her exports, and this we believe 
can be effected by improving her agriculture.”* 


* Believing it will be of interest to our friends to see the progress of the trade of British 
India, we present in the following (from the Statesman's Year Book , London, 1875,) a 




22 


The Delhi (India) Gazette speaks in the same strain : “We have on seve¬ 
ral occasions lately, shown that America has of late years been making such 
rapid strides to regain the Cotton trade, that there is danger of India losing 
a trade which has been equalling £20,000,000 sterling, some four-fifths of 
which went to the agricultural community, who are the chief tax-payers in 
India. If the increase of the produce supply in America only opens tfie 
. eyes of those connected with the trade out here, India will have no cause 
to repent that there was a time when she ran great danger of losing this 
important branch of commerce, for w T e feel confident that if proper exertions 
be only now made, she will be able to retain her share of the trade. The 


statement of her imports and exports, from 1864 to 1873 inclusive, with some details refer¬ 
ring to them. These figures speak for themselves: 


Imports into British India from 1864 to 1873 inclusive. 


Years. 

Merchandise. 

Treasure. 

Total Imports. 


£ 

£ 

£ 

1864 .. 

27,145,590 

22,962,581 

50,108,171 

1865. 

28,150,923 

21,363,352 

49,5-14,275 

1866.. 

29,599,228 

26,557,301 

56,156.529 

1867. 

29,038,715 

13,236,904 

42,275,619 

1868 . 

35.397,832 

”,730,459 

47,128,291 

1869. . 

35.193,767 

15 , 149,424 

50943,191 

1870.. 

32,927.579 

13,954,807 

46.882,386 

1871. 

33,413,905 

5,444,823 

38,858729 

1872. 

31,083,747 

”,573,813 

42,657,560 

1873 . 

31,260,561 

4,556,585 

35,817,146 


Exports from British India from 1864 to 1873 inclusive. 


Years. 

Merchandise. 

Treasure. 

Total Exports. 

1864. 

£ 

65,625,449 

£ 

1,270,435 

£ 

66,895,884 

1865. 

68,027,016 

1,444,775 

69,471,791 

1866... 

65,491,123 

2,165,352 

67,656,475 

1867. 

41,859,994 

2 , 431,503 

44,291,497 

1868. 

50,045,849 

1,481,739 

51,527,588 

1869. 

52,316,486 

1,390,344 / 

53,706,830 

1870. 

52,471,375 

1,042,352 

53,513,727 

1871. 

55,331,825 

2,220,765 

1,476,093 

57,552,590 

1872... 

63,175,847 

64,661,940 

1873 . 

55,227,495 

1,298,079 

56,525,574 


“ The chief articles of export from India to England, in the year 1873, were : Raw Cot¬ 
ton, value £9,812,086; jute, value £3,560,880; rice, value £3,055,465; indigo, value 
£2,029,850; and tea, value £1,522,193. The raw Cotton exported from India to Eng¬ 
land, in 1867, amounted to 4,443,148 cwts., value £13,956,947; in 1868, to 4,398,119 cwts., 


































































23 


reply as to how we can retain our share of the trade is simply answered, 
for we have only to improve the agriculture. There remains nothing for us 
hut doubling the yield if we are to retain the European Cotton trade.” 

Mr. Rivett-Carnac, from whose report, as Cotton Commissioner for the 
Central Provinces and the Berars , India , we quoted quite largely in our pub¬ 
lication of last Spring, writes us that his office has been abolished, “as it was 
no longer considered necessary,” and that he has been assigned to other duty. 
In general, we observe that not even India stands in our way if we will 
that it shall be otherwise. 


value £i5,975>5 6 9; in 1869, to 4,284,334 cwts., value £18,342,887; in 1870, to 3,041,165 
cwts., value £9,943,674; in 1871, to 3,843,491 cwts., value £11,711,349; in 1872, to 
3,934,546 cwts., value £12,862,300; in 1873, to 3,728,986 cwts., value £9,812,086. 

“The chief articles of British produce imported into India, in 1873, were Cotton goods, 
value £15,020,646; and iron, value £1,179,093. The imports of Cotton manufactures, 
averaging two thirds of the total British imports into India, were of the value of £12,519,786 
in 1867; of £13,896,486, in 1868; of £10,850,509, in 1869; of £12,835,744 in 1870; of 
£13,101,645, in 1871; and of £13,078,831, in 1872. 

“ Next to the United Kingdom, the countries having the largest trade with India are 
China and Japan, the imports from which average £8,500,000, per annum, while the ex¬ 
ports to them are of the average value of £12,000,000.” 

The internal commerce of India has been vastly developed of late years by the construc¬ 
tion of several great lines of railway, made under the guarantee of the government. 
Despite the help afforded to India by the construction of these railways, her cotton trade 
continues to decline; and we who have been so battered, at all points, are doing the work. 

In the matter of railway construction in India, the following will not be uninteresting: 
The average cost per mile of constructing the railways now in operation in India ( States¬ 
man's Year Book , London , 1875,) was ,£16,536 or $82,680. According to “ Poor's 
Manual of Railroads , U. Sf the cost per mile of construction in the United States has 
been: New England States, $50,418; Middle States, $79,427; Western States, 
$50,550; and Southern States, $36,575. Considering the cheapness of the ryots’ labor 
in India, as compared with the price of labor in the United States, and we hre astonished 
at this comparison; for this difference cannot be laid wholly to excess of cost of iron and 
other supplies over that paid by the United States. This, however, calls to mind a conclu¬ 
sion of the late Mr. Thomas Brassy, the most eminent railway builder the world has 
ever seen. We give it in the words of his son, Mr. Thomas Brassy, M. P.: “ The lesson 
derived by my father from his great experience as an employer was, that the best paid 
workmen are generally the best, and the worst paid the worst. It was my father’s fortu¬ 
nate lot to be among the first who directed their attention to the construction of railways. 
As the pioneer of the present generation of railroad contractors, he undertook large works 
in every country of Europe, and, Africa excepted, in every quarter of th^globe. With such 
rare opportunities of estimating the relative efficiency of the laborer of many races, and 
under every vicissitude of climate, the conclusion at which he arrived was this— that the 
cost of labor was 'practically the same in all countries. The proportionate cost of skilled 
and unskilled labor may vary; but where there was no exceptional disturbing cause, as 
from the sparseness of population in a sterile or unoccupied region, the cost of labor was in 
all cases calculated at the same amount, and the soundness of the calculation was borne 
put everywhere by the result,” 



24 


How was this state of things brought about, which has not only astonished 
the India newspapers, quoted above, but the whole world? “No political 
revolution, no change from a monarchy to a republic, or the reverse, no down¬ 
fall or elevation of dynasties with the wars precedent to or consequent there¬ 
on, ever so universally affected the people, among whom they occurred, as 
the abolition of slavery has affected the people of the South.”— (Howard). 
It was so interlaced through our whole body-politic as, when torn out, to 
leave us well-nigh helpless. Nor did the trouble stop there; the General 
Government, with a fiendish pleasure, has left no effort untried, down to this 
day, to render our situation one of supreme wretchedness. And yet we have 
striven for a living, and have succeeded. We have made sugar, and rice, and 
naval stores, and tobacco, and crops of Cotton much beyond 4,000,000 of 
bales. The same unflinching courage and fortitude that carried us through 
a war, unparalleled in modern times, for disparity of numbers and equip¬ 
ment, have enabled us to keep on our feet in the terrible years that have 
dragged on since that struggle closed. A few years ago, an English gen¬ 
tleman of great intelligence, and well acquainted with the Cotton trade, 
made a tour of observation through the Cotton States. He sent the 
results, from time to time, to the newspapers in Manchester, England. 
In one of his letters occurs the following: “Great attention is being paid 
to manures, and instead of Cotton being grown on large plantations, it is 
cultivated on a small scale by men, many of whom never grew a bale 
before the war. These men till the lands themselves, and by cultivating 
only a small area they can pay more attention to their crop than if 
they owned an extensive tract. Thus you see it is white labor which pro¬ 
duces Cotton now rather than black." This matter of the white man at work 
is the first 'reason for this great result; and nothing could have been more 
effective, in this direction, than the handsome premiums offered since the war 
by our agricultural societies in the South, to provoke our white boys to indi¬ 
vidual effort. We want no better addition to our own labor than the “negro 
managed.” The effort to make more than a child of him has failed every¬ 
where else ; why should it succeed in the United States? The poor soul 
has been used by the minions of the Government, sent down to afflict us, 
until in many quarters, his usefulness has been almost destroyed ; indeed, 
made a curse instead of a blessing. 

But there is another reason for this result that we cannot overlook, and 
that lies in the use of chemical manures, both as a labor-saving contrivance 
and an improver of our upland staple. With the negro, through the per¬ 
nicious influences to which he has been subjected, unreliable to the last degree, 
a very considerable return, under the prosecution of old methods, was rendered 
impossible. The example, in this emergency, of the remarkable results ob¬ 
tained in Europe, from the discreet use of concentrated manures, was not 


25 


lost on our Cotton country. Their convenient shape, and the ease with which 
they could be applied, at once commended them to very general employment. 
Our Cotton production before the war, pushed with vigor, and aided by am¬ 
ple labor under perfect control, and every other necessary appliance, failed 
to give results greater than is now accomplished, year after year, with our 
general economy in a shape far from systematic or satisfactory. Chemical 
manures, in fact, can boast nowhere a greater triumph, as a labor-saving 
contrivance, than in our Southern country. As to their beneficial effect, in 
the improvement of the quality of our upland staple, we cannot do better 
than submit a letter we have received, on this point, under date of 20th 
ultimo, from Mess. Reynolds Brothers, Norfolk, Va., perhaps the largest 
buyers and shippers of Cotton, outside of New Orleans, in the United States. 
(Norfolk is now the second Cotton port, in number of bales received, in 
this country). They write: “Some years ago, before fertilizers were extensively 
used in North Carolina and Virginia, there was a great prejudice amongst 
Northern and European manufacturers against Norfolk Cotton, so much so, 
that we found difficulty in obtaining orders ; but we are pleased to say that, 
of late years, this prejudice has not only been removed, but a prefer¬ 
ence is given to Norfolk Cotton over other upland qualities. Our friends in 
Liverpool have told us that, in many cases, they could obtain as much for 
it as for Gulf Cotton; in fact, during the past year they could obtain a 
slight advantage, in selling “arrival” Cotton, when they stipulated it would 
be from Norfolk. We attribute this improvement in staple to better care 
than formerly in cultivation, and to the liberal use of concentrated fertili¬ 
zers.” Regions that used to be esteemed as beyond the limits of successful 
culture, are now brought into full play through the agency of these ma¬ 
nures. The crop is advanced several weeks ahead of what was possible in 
those locations under the old methods, and the staple, therefore, enabled to 
fully mature. In Arkansas, the past season, through the failure of the bolls 
to open in time, the crop was held to be cut short one-half. With the aid 
of a good concentrated manure, the bulk of them would undoubtedly have 
been brought in. But these conclusions are not confined to Mess. Reynolds 
Brothers, by any means. As early as 1869 Mr. B. F. Nourse, of Boston, 
Cotton Commissioner of the United States to the Paris Exposition, observed, 
(in his report,) that “commercial fertilizers had a marked effect in the in¬ 
crease and better quality of the Cotton produced, and this was as apparent on 
the light and much worn lands of the Carolinas and Georgia, as upon the 
heavier and fresher lands further west.” * * “It might be 

useful, did space permit, to notice in detail other movements in progress for 
the improvement of Cotton culture, prominent among which would stand the 
valuable experiments in ‘improvement by selection of seed,’ from year to 
year always guided by rules which define the object sought—in Cotton, 
8 


26 


^pinning qualities, such as length, strength, fineness, and the cohering to¬ 
gether of the fibres; rapid growth and early maturity of the plant, and a 
habit of yielding well.” Again : In July, 1870, the Council of the Cotton • 
Supply Association, Manchester, addressed a memorial to the Brazilian 
government on Cotton production in that Empire. In it we find the follow¬ 
ing : “The Council desire to suggest that every facility should be afforded 
to the growth of Cotton, in the Empire of Brazil, by promoting the improved 
systems of cultivation now in practice in the United States, namely, the em¬ 
ployment of manures called fertilizers, and the use of agricultural imple¬ 
ments calculated to economize labor, so that should the price of Cotton de¬ 
cline this may be as much as possible counterbalanced by the reduced cost 
of production.” In addition, then, to the observation of those in the South, 
whose business it is to handle this crop largely, as buyers, of what is due to 
concentrated manures, we have the testimony, in confirmation, of the two 
great centres of the Cotton manufacture, Boston and Manchester. 

What now is necessary to enable us to make entirely available the great 
advantages we possess? The first absolute essential is good local governments. 
We have seen repeatedly, since the war, from the pens of those recognized 
at the North, as the exponents of its opinion, this expression : “ the heresy 
of States-rights.” We imagine the aspect of things since the election 
will have the effect to modify the animus of this expression very ma¬ 
terially. The Xth amendment to the Constitution of the United States 
reads as follows: “ The powers not delegated to the United States by the 
Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States 
respectively, or to the people.” On which Justice Story makes this com¬ 
ment : “ The one is to imply all powers, which may be useful to the Na¬ 
tional Government, which are not expressly prohibited; and the other is, 
to deny all powers to the National Government, which are not expressly 
granted. We have already seen that there are many implied powers neces¬ 
sarily resulting from the nature of the express powers, and it is as clear 
that no power can properly arise by implication from a mere prohibition. 
The government of the United States is one of limited powers ; and no au¬ 
thority exists beyond the prescribed limits marked out in the instrument 
itself. Whatever powers are not granted, necessarily belong to the respec¬ 
tive States, or the people of the respective States, if they have not been 
confided by them to the State governments.” With authority as august as 
this to justify us, we cling to “the heresy of States-rights;” yea, go further, 
and say that unless the people throughout all of these United States stand 
to these rights, they bid fair soon to be without any rights at all. 

With the General Government out of the hands of those who have for so 
many years wielded its power to the detriment of the general interest, and 
especially of the South, we may look for better times. The carpet-bagger 


27 


will leave our soil, because the negroes will cease to be under his control, 
when we will have the means at our command of arranging our labor mat¬ 
ters in a way to bring the best return to both employer and employed. 
This done, the self-sustaining policy, already under way with our people, 
will manifest itself in a mixed husbandry, intensive will take the place of 
extensive farming, domestic and concentrated manures will be used to the 
best advantage; in short, investing the word labor with an honor never as¬ 
signed it in the past, we can build up within our borders such a prosperity 
as this country has never witnessed before. If, as is shown by a comparison 
between the results of the census of 1850 and that of 1860, the Cotton 
States trebled their wealth during that period, why should not we, with 
prices for our staple, much better than were then secured, and under a sys¬ 
tem of management organized to suit our surroundings, do at least reasona¬ 
bly well ? The prize is certainly worth our best effort. 

As evidence of real improvement in our general condition South, we pre¬ 
sent the testimony of the Commercial and Financial Chronicle, of New 
York, a journal regarded by the trade, both in Europe and America, as es¬ 
pecially well advised in Cotton matters: “ In the South there have been no 
marked changes in the Cotton manufacturing business. Some new mills 
have started up, but others have suspended, while still others have been 
running on short time. Taken together, we find no material alteration in 
the consumption of Cotton. This industry has now secured a strong hold in 
that section, and is certain to make very decided progress in future years, as 
it is proving more clearly, each succeeding twelve months, how profitably it 
can be prosecuted there. And in this connection the improved condition of 
the South is an extremely hopeful feature in the industrial outlook for the 
whole country. We do not mean that every man there is accumulating 
wealth. They are doing better than that;—they are accumulating ideas of 
economy in production, which, in the end, must inevitably not only lead to 
individual profit, but show to the world the wonderful capabilities of that 
richly favored section. As an immediate result of an improved policy, it 
will be found that the Cotton crop now about to be marketed more nearly 
belongs to the planter than any previous one, while his food also is, to a 
much greater extent than ever before, of his own raising.” A friend, in 
Boston, thoroughly posted in connection with the American crop, wrote us, 
under date of Christmas day last, the following, in this direction: “ It is 
well to note, that while the crop is quoted on the grade of Middling at li 
cents average lower than a year ago, and opened about 2£ cents lower, the av¬ 
erage price which the producers will have received from the whole crop will 
not vary materially per pound from the average received for the last previ¬ 
ous crop, and may be a little higher, because of the extraordinary high 
grading of this crop. Any deficiency then in the sum total to producers 


28 


will be from redaction in the pounds produced, and not in the average price 
per pound, though the apparent quotation would show otherwise. Cotton 
growers were very successful in saving food crops in 1875, and had not to 
expend, and borrow to expend, in the purchase of corn, &c., what capital 
was needed to make their Cotton. Again this year they have done well in 
crops of subsistence, and in large areas have added one hundred per cent, 
to the production of pork, bacon, &c. They approach the season of 1877 
more independent than ever before." The following will show one important 
point in which we are beginning to take care of ourselves: The West 
packed, in 1876, 104,915,867 pounds less pork than it did in 1875. This 
is the reason assigned: “ The Provision trade, owing to falling prices 
during most of the year, proved less profitable than usual; and on account 
of the political complications in the Southern States, the demand for dis¬ 
tribution has for several months been interfered with.” When we see 
domestic pork for sale in the town stores, as we have of late, we may rea¬ 
sonably conclude that the man who sold it had more than was needed to 
sustain his family. This policy persevered in, (the day is dawning when 
it will become generally possible,) and we will find ourselves not only with¬ 
out reason for despondency, but with hearts full of thankfulness for the 
plenty vouchsafed us. 

Again: When capital has the assurance that it will not be taxed out of 
existence by irresponsible legislatures, such as have cursed the South for so 
many years, it will not be slow to avail itself of the advantages our section 
presents for manufactures of all kinds. We will no longer continue in the 
category of those of whom it has been said : “ It was an old and a true jest 
of the manufacturing countries, at the expense of those who supplied them 
with raw materials, and took manufactures in exchange, that these latter 
‘sold the hide for sixpence and bought back the tail for a shilling.’ Take 
the case of a planter, who raises both Cotton and breadstuffs for exportation, 
as the best illustration of the position of the whole country. His Cotton is 
worth from ten to twenty per cent, more at the Manchester mill than when 
it left his plantation; so much has been absorbed by the cost of transporta¬ 
tion, and of the whole bulk some ten per cent, is thrown out by the spinner 
as waste. His corn is worth four times as much in Manchester, being far 
bulkier in proportion to its value, and he has no means to raise its price 
above one-fourth of what it ordinarily sells for in England, as it there comes 
in competition with the harvest of England and the world. But it goes to 
feed Manchester work-people, and is therefore part of the raw material of 
the Cotton goods that come back to clothe his family and his work-people. 
He brings it back, in buying those goods, paying a dollar for 'what brought 
him twenty-five cents, and another dollar for what brought him eighty cents. 
And then, besides, he must pay the cost of bringing it back from Manchester 


29 


to his plantation. He had better have employed people to spin and weave 
his Cotton, and consume his corn at home, even though their money-cost 
were much greater than that of Manchester goods. For as he is both a 
producer and a consumer, his interest is in the comparative price of 
the two classes of goods, not alone in the cheapness of that which he buys. 
When England began the manufacture of Cotton goods, India could sup¬ 
ply her with Cotton at a third the cost of home-manufacture, and indeed 
their import was a chief business of the East India Company. But by 
strenuous protective measures she developed the skill of her people, secured 
the invention of better machinery, and made great accumulation of capital. 
The tariff of 1819 still prohibited the importation of Cotton goods made East 
of the Cape of Good Hope, and imposed from 50 to 67 per cent, ad valorem 
duties on those that were made in Europe. She can now carry the Cotton 
of Hindostan and America over land and sea, spin and weave it into stuffs, 
and then carry it back to undersell the American and the Indian manufac¬ 
turer, who sees the staple growing under the windows of his factory. Hav¬ 
ing reached this point, she throws off all protective duties, and invites the 
world to imitate her magnanimity. On her small area she has gathered 
machines that do the work of four hundred and fifty millions of people. 
Vast accumulations of capital, and the command of money at a low rate of 
interest, have enabled her to watch the shifts and changes of the market, to 
destroy hostile competition by temporary sacrifices, and to undersell every 
foreign manufacturer at will.” 

An old friend, acquainted with the Cotton region since his childhood, 
writes us: “ Why should we cultivate fifty acres if, with better management, 
we can get as great a yield from twenty ? This is the only way to Cotton 
of low cost of production, to monopoly of Cotton production in our country; 
to successful competition of the old worn-out lands of the East with the new 
rich lands of the West,—and more than all, of enabling and forcing diver¬ 
sity of production when accumulating wealth and labor shall demand other 
employment and investment than in Cotton fields, tobacco lots, or even the 
whole field of agriculture. The wealth buried in the mountains must be 
brought out as well as that in the low-lands, and both must drive thousands 
of factories. To this end, the dignity of labor, the nobility of -personal in¬ 
dependence self-earned , the simple honesty of thrift, must be inculcated, nay 
more, made popular.” To all which we give our heartiest assent; who that 
thinks of these things will do less ? 

We have but this to say, in conclusion, to our friends in the Cotton coun¬ 
try : you have a weapon of unsurpassed quality, which, skilfully wielded, 
will enable you to withstand all comers. Let not this weapon rust from 
lack of use. 














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